Who Will Win The Super-Fight Between Khabib and McGregor?

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A UFC grudge match between UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov and former two-division champion Conor McGregor is on this Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena.

It’s a matchup years in the making that escalated this past March when Conor McGregor threw a dolly through a glass window of a UFC travel bus that contained Khabib Nurmagomedov on it ahead of the UFC’s Brooklyn event.

Now, there’s no more talking. Who will win?

Here are my predictions for the UFC’s biggest PPV extravaganza in years.

Khabib Nurmagomedov (-155) vs Conor McGregor (+125)

What’s being called the UFC’s biggest fight ever takes place on Saturday night when Khabib Nurmagomedov defends his UFC lightweight title vs Conor McGregor in a huge grudge match.

This is going to be Conor MgGregor’s first UFC fight since November 2016, nearly two years ago. His opponent is a man he’s developed a true bad blood rivalry with in Khabib Nurmagomedov.

With so many ways to pick the fight apart, one thing that’s become very clear is the significant advantage each holds over each other in different aspects of the fight.

Khabib Nurmagomedov (26-0, 10 UFC) holds a alarmingly high advantage over Conor McGrefor, particularly if the fight gets to the ground.

Going back to his early MMA days McGregor has shown vulnerability when on his back, suffering submission losses early to Joseph Duffy and Artemij Sitenkov.

While McGregor has likely cleaned up his ground game from then, we all saw him look rather defenseless fighting off his back vs Chad Mendes back in 2015.

Mendes has success in establishing dominant positions while punishing McGregor, but seemed to gas out with the toll and pace McGregor has applied early in the fight as well as taking the fight in short notice.

Mendes is an excellent wrestler and grappler, but not quite like ‘The Eagle’, who has run over everyone put in front of him for a staggering 26-0 MMA mark.

McGregor (19-3, 9-1 UFC) has shown solid takedown defense against the likes of Eddie Alvarez and Nate Diaz, two fighters albeit aren’t purely wrestling oriented fighters.

The concern for McGregor is if Khabib Nurmagomedov can accomplish such wrestling dominance as he did vs top lightweights like Edson Barboza, Michael Johnson, Al Iaquinta, and Rafael Dos Anjos, what does that mean for McGregor if he doesn’t predictably connect on the chin of a fighter susceptible and open for shots?

It doesn’t bode well for McGregor, who has faded in fights vs a pressure fighting style before in Nate Diaz.

As for the concern for Khabib Nurmagomedov, as mentioned, the AKA standout is susceptible to getting hit by McGregor due to his poor technique and fundamentals in terms of going backwards with his chin up and exposed.

We saw this be an issue for Nurmagomedov as recent as his last fight back in March when he disposed of short notice challenger Al Iaquinta to win a vacated UFC lightweight title that was held previously by an inactive Conor McGregor.

Iaquinta with faints and being a come forward fighter at times got Nurmagomedov to slide backwards with his hands up but his left hand low and his chin up in the air.

Khabib Nurmagomedov is not terribly off balance when he makes this error. Unfortunately, against a pure striker that combines punching power and accuracy with a high fighting IQ like Conor McGregor’s, that a bad omen if Nurmagomedov doesn’t close the distance.

Closing the distance will come with a added risk, but Nurmagomedov offers himself little chance of winning this super-fight by trying to stand in the middle of the octagon with McGregor or fighting a distance battle.

McGregor’s timing and accuracy could be problematic for Nurmagomedov who doesn’t possess the standup ability to threaten the Irish superstar enough to make him honest.

As for my prediction, we’ve seen McGregor pick up victories over Max Holloway, Jose Aldo, Dustin Poirer, and Eddie Alvarez, but he’s not bulletproof as much as people analyzing seem to be trying to relay to the public.

You’re probably saying, ‘Of course, not but neither is his opponent’. That is true, but McGregor has not fought in the octagon in two years and his glaring weaknesses in grappling/wrestling as well as his cardio are a nightmare for a fighter who’s gameplan to not get hit tend to sound better than not getting taken down by and punished by arguably the UFC’s best in the business at doing it.

Prediction: Khabib Nurmagomedov by Round 5 SUB

Rest of Main Card

Tony Ferguson (-350) vs Anthony Pettis (+275)

Tony Ferguson has not lost since dropping a unanimous decision to Michael Johnson in May 2012. He’s getting it done as a durable and higher altitude mixed martial artist capable of still coming forward no matter what he’s hit with.

This matchup, however, is dangerous for one of the most well-versed and complete fighters in the MMA. Anthony Pettis is still an outstanding striker and doesn’t have his Jiu-Jitsu credited enough.

In a fight where both fighters have great chins and can likely match each-other on the ground, this could be Pettis tactical masterpiece vs Tony Ferguson’s aggressive in your face style. Grab your popcorn for this one!

Prediction: Tony Ferguson by unanimous decision

Ovince Saint Preux (+175) vs Dominick Reyes (-225)

Ovince Saint Preux has won four out of his last five fights, but will be faced with a tall task against Dominick Reyes, who is coming off a 1st-Round KO victory vs Jared Cannonier back in May.

What could be a determining factor is Saint Preaux’s perceived advantage in the grappling department. Saint Preaux has finished seven career fights by submission and has a strong top game once on the ground.

Prediction: Ovince Saint Preaux by Round 2 SUB

Derrick Lewis (+150) vs Alexander Volkov (-185)

Derrick Lewis is pure gold with his mouth as well as his hands. The Houston native has a knack for sending fans home happy with his brawling style, but he may not be able to get home vs a long and lengthy Russian in Alexander Volkov.

Volkov showed us in his last fight vs Fabricio Werdum that he can beat one of the greatest heavyweights of all-time. Ever so close to a title shot, ‘Drago’ uses his ground game to further expose the weaknesses Derrick Lewis has there, who is too comfortable fighting off his back.

Prediction Alexander Volkov by Round 2 KO

Michelle Waterson (+100) vs Felice Herrig (-130)

Michelle Waterson is always in a exciting fight and this in all likelihood will be another one given her opponent Felice Herrig’s aggressive style.

What Waterson has in her back pocket is her submission skills if the fight goes to the ground as well as a solid top game. Look for Waterson to get a hard-fought win here.

Prediction: Michelle Waterson by split-decision

Prelims

Sergio Pettis vs Jussier Da Silva

Sergio Pettis by unanimous decision

Vicente Luque vs Jalin Turner

Vicente Luque by Round 2 KO

Tonya Evinger vs Aspen Ladd

Tonya Evinger by unanimous decision

Yana Kunitskaya vs Lina Lansberg

Yana Kunitskaya by Round 2 KO

Alan Patrick Silva Alves vs Scott Holtzman

Scott Holtzman by unanimous decision

Gray Maynard vs Nik Lentz

Gray Maynard by unanimous decision

Ryan LaFlare vs Tony Martin

Ryan LaFlare by Round 1 KO