Pats Win Thriller Over Chiefs
Week 5 Results: 9-6
Record This Season: 44-34
It wasn’t a good week for the so-called picks king, but for the first time this season we’ll look back and see where things went south.
With the focus on two of the earlier games, one pick I truly had a misread on that I’m sure a number of people did as well was the Denver Broncos game.
Denver scored on its first possession of the game, but were nowhere to be found thereafter, particularly on defense.
The Jets got big plays on offense and a double-digit margin on the road in the second half was way too big of a task for Case Keenum and the Broncos offense.
Another pick I got horribly wrong was the Packers game, but let’s be real here, HOW MANY KICKERS MISS FIVE … FIVE F****** FIELD GOALS IN ONE GAME?? Let’s not even mention that Aaron Rodgers was throwing the ball to a guy named Equanimeous and another guy with three last names.
The 49ers gave up 28 points to the Cardinals, who likely won’t see that point total combined over their next three games. Philadelphia was Philadelphia, well this season’s Philadelphia that allows Minnesota’s rushing attack to look dangerous for once.
Week 5 was in a lot of ways a major flop for me that I wish I had back. The football gods aren’t too kind to me these days … I wasn’t the only one who started Alvin Kamara this week in fantasy right?
Week 6 gives us a high-powered offensive matchup in New England between Kermit and the Chiefs vs The Football inspector and the Patriots.
Elsewhere, Jerry Jones gets to watch Jalen Ramsey act like shutting down his former teammate Allen Hurns for a game warrants MVP consideration while Derek Carr and Russell Wilson try not to throw interceptions down on the goal line with Marshawn Lynch lining up in the backfield for both of them on Sunday.
Okay! Okay! I’m getting to it. Here are my predictions for Week 6 of the 2018 NFL regular season.
*Drum roll please*
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Philadelphia’s pass defense on the road has been suspect to begin the season as they have allowed Ryan Fitzpatrick and Marcus Mariota to rack over over 700 passing yards vs their defense combined.
The Giants don’t have an explosive passing offense, but neither did Tennessee. Eli Manning is 10-18 in his career vs the Philadelphia Eagles in the regular-season so that doesn’t inspire much confidence. On a short week, I’m inclined to pick the home team given that home teams are 5-0 this season in Thursday night games.
Prediction: New York Giants 27 Philadelphia Eagles 24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
The Buccaneers are rolling with Jameis Winston coming out of their much needed bye week. Simply put, it was the correct decision for head coach Dirk Koetter as the Fitzmagic hit a sad halt in Chicago two weeks ago vs the Bears. The Buccaneers have lost two in a row, but they already have a division road win under their belts vs the Saints.
While picking them to win is tempting, there’s something about Atlanta. No, nothing very good of late about them (I’m grasping for straws here). Julio Jones doesn’t have a touchdown catch this season. Consider these two realities, Jones finished with 12 receptions for 253 receiving yards and two touchdowns vs Tampa Bay in Atlanta last season.
Consider the next, Tampa Bay is surrendering the second most yards in the NFL this season (445.8) and the most points on average (34.8).
Prediction: Atlanta Falcons 33 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
The Pittsburgh Steelers are behind the Bengals in the AFC North Standings, but this is a must-win for the Bengals. Cincinnati has been one of the stranger teams in the NFL this season.
On defense, they give up yards and sometimes points in bunches before turning it on late or that in reverse. On offense, they turn the football over one minute and then the next Andy Dalton is looking like the reincarnation of ‘Good Andy’.
While this is a very good spot to pick Cincinnati, I’m not buying that secondary vs Pittsburgh’s wide receivers. Quite frankly, no other quarterback in the NFL scares me more than Andy Dalton. In a bad way.
Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers 29 Cincinatti Bengals 24
Seattle Seahawks vs Oakland Raiders
It’s the Marshawn Lynch Bowl as Lynch tries to decide which team not allowing him to run the ball down on the goal line was worse.
The Raiders are tied for the fifth most turnovers in the NFL. That spells trouble vs a Seattle Seahawks defense that has 11 this season and minus Earl Thomas last week for the first time managed to get two turnovers vs the Rams offense.
Prediction: Seattle Seahawks 31 Oakland Raiders 24
Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns generate pressure on the quarterback when they blitz. That’s something that will be problematic even for a Chargers offense that has allowed Philip Rivers to be sacked an NFL-low six times in five games.
The blitz beaters? Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler. We know how explosive Melvin Gordon is with the ball in open space, but we saw last week that his backfield mate is plenty shifty himself on a dazzling 44-yard touchdown on a screen pass vs the Oakland Raiders.
Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers 19 Cleveland Browns 16
Chicago Bears at Miami Dolphins
The Chicago Bears are an explosive team when Mitchell Trubisky wears a arm sleeve on his throwing arm.
With an arm sleeve on Mitchell Trubisky is capable of eye-popping numbers like five passing touchdowns in one half and nearly 300 passing yards.
Arm Sleeve Mitch > Hoodie Melo
Prediction: Chicago Bears 23 Miami Dolphins 14
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings
Trust the Minnesota Vikings with a -10.5 point spread at home at your own discretion. We all believed that this team would roll over the Buffalo Bills a couple of weeks ago.
Arizona has had a realistic chance to win in each of their last three games with last week’s 28-18 win being their first. Unfortunately, a rookie Quarterback making his first start on the road (Yeah we’re falling for this again…) and David Johnson averaging 3.3 yards per carry makes me a steady pessimist.
Prediction: Minnesota Vikings 27 Arizona Cardinals 16
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets
Andrew Luck and the Colts are reeling. The team’s defense looked surprising over the first three weeks of the season but have since given up an average of 37.5 PPG. The New York Jets shouldn’t be trusted after the last time they came off a victory, but this is the absolute perfect spot and perfect team for Todd Bowles’ team.
Prediction: New York Jets 27 Indianapolis Colts 23
Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins
The Washington Redskins may have had a little too much fun during their bye week as a 43-19 drubbing at the hands this of the Saints this past Monday exposed Washington’s defense.
While Carolina doesn’t have nearly as potent an offense as New Orleans’, Cam Newton is having an under the radar season in one category he’s always been criticized in.
Through four games Cam Newton is completing 65.4 percent of his passes in 2018. His previous career-high was set back in 2013 at 61.7 percent. He has failed to get over the 59 percent threshold since then.
Prediction: Carolina Panthers 34 Washington Redskins 27
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
The Houston Texans have needed overtime to win each of their two games this season. While another one wouldn’t be surprising considering Buffalo is not as bad as everyone thought they were (Gee … I wonder who said they weren’t that bad after Week 1?).
The problem here is the fact that Houston’s front seven is downright scary at the moment. Last week we saw them shut down the Dallas Cowboys rushing attack which resulted in Dallas’ pass offense having to beat them and this week it’s a similar challenge in needing to shutdown Buffalo’s rushing attack to force Josh Allen into doing so.
Prediction: Houston Texans 24 Buffalo Bills 9
Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos
Todd Gurley has been given 20+ touches in each of the Los Angeles Rams first five games this season. He’s recorded over 100+ yards from scrimmage in four of them, but he has not had a breakout game to this point in terms of yardage.
Los Angeles may be without Cooper Kupp and Brandin Cooks this week in Denver due to concussions which will be a challenge, but this is a Broncos team that was just used as toilet paper by Isaiah Crowell (219 rushing yards) and are giving up 139.6 rushing yards per game, 30th in the NFL.
Prediction: Los Angeles Rams 34 Denver Broncos 13
Jacksonville Jaguars at Dallas Cowboys
The Jacksonville Jaguars finally got an interception from a defensive back last week but this defense has strangely had trouble forcing turnovers in 2018. Jacksonville is tied for the third fewest takeaways in the NFL this season with 5 takeaways after forcing the 2nd most in 2017 (33).
That has not kept Jacksonville from dominating teams defensively, but it may become a problem down the road if Blake Bortles continues his Jekyll and Hyde play. The Dallas Cowboys defense is formidable enough to make this a close game, but that offense vs this defense? C’mon man!
Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars 13 Dallas Cowboys 6
Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans
The Baltimore Ravens surprisingly don’t do too well coming off of a loss in the John Harbaugh era. Since 2014 the Baltimore Ravens are 11-15 coming off a loss. The Tennessee Titans offense looked putrid on the road in Buffalo and on the season are averaging 17.4 PPG. Unless Baltimore’s offense continues to go 4-for-16 on third down, it’s hard to envision them not coming away with a victory.
Prediction: Baltimore Ravens 20 Tennessee Titans 16
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
The New England Patriots normally lose at home in the regular-season with Tom Brady at the helm. Tom Brady is 110-19 at home, that’s a 85 percent winning percentage in Foxborough.
One of the last teams to beat New England at Gillette Stadium was the Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City’s explosive offense has cooled some in the last two weeks. Kansas City has to like their chances given that New England doesn’t have Jacksonville’s secondary or a Von Miller on their defense.
Three key stats to monitor for this one. New England in the first half this season at home have run their opposition off the field. In the first half New England have outscored their opponents at home 69-9 in the first half this season. The Kansas City Chiefs defense have held their opponents to a 29.3 percent third down conversion rate but have allowed 10 of 13 fourth downs converted against them. In a close game, that last stat matters.
Prediction: New England Patriots 37 Kansas City Chiefs 31 OT
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers offense managed without a number of offensive weapons in Week 5 but still came up on the short end of the stick thanks to three turnovers leading to 17 points for the Detroit Lions. The 49ers appear to be in more trouble than originally thought with C.J. Beathard turning the ball over four times in a 28-18 loss to the Cardinals last Sunday.
Given the venue, the primetime setting, and…. wait, Aaron Rodgers vs C.J. Beathard???
Prediction: Green Bay Packers 34 San Francisco 49ers 10
What are your thoughts on this week’s NFL games? Leave your comments below!