Who Will Leave UFC 230 As Heavyweight Champion?
The UFC returns to Madison Square Garden for the third consecutive year as Daniel Cormier will put his UFC heavyweight title on the line vs No. 2 ranked heavyweight contender Derrick Lewis in the UFC 230 main event.
Cormier holds both the the UFC heavyweight and light heavyweight title belts, and will look to hold off “The Black Beast”, who is on a scary KO terrain in the heavyweight division.
It’s a stacked card from top to bottom with exciting matchups that should send fans in the Garden home happy.
Not to flap my gums any longer, let’s jump into the predictions for the main card and prelims for this Saturday’s PPV event.
Daniel Cormier (-700) vs Derrick Lewis (+450)
Daniel Cormier is a huge favorite going into his first UFC heavyweight title defense vs the dangerous Derrick Lewis, and for good reason. Cormier is superior in terms of hand speed, mobility, fight IQ, technique, motor, and wrestling. To put it bluntly, Daniel Cormier is a better mixed-martial artist than the Houston native.
So how does Derrick Lewis have a chance in this one? His knockout power. He’s a ferocious slugger and brawler, something he prides himself in. And as we saw vs Alexander Volkov last month at UFC 229, with his back against the wall and in deep waters, he can dig through and still display his frightening punch power which has led to him winning nine out of his past 10 octagon appearances.
A few things concern me with Lewis right off the bat, though. One, he’s coming off a fight less than a month ago, historically that’s a bad omen. Two, he’s fighting a guy who will punish his body and push him to his limits. This is the most concerning because Lewis’ gasses in fights fairly quickly and sometimes can be so prodding in his attack and approach that he’s unprepared for grappling exchanges and takedown attempts.
We’ve seen Daniel Cormier push men far more durable and with a better toolbox than Lewis to their limits and broke them. Yes, it’s a huge risk for Daniel Cormier. He’s 39 years old fighting a man who only needs one good punch to put his foes to sleep, but Cormier is far too polished a fighter and too sophisticated in his thinking.
While we all love us some Derrick Lewis, he’s in over his head here and we all know he’s happy just to be here (for the check). He’ll be dominated soundly in this one by a superior fighter.
Prediction: Daniel Cormier by Round 3 TKO
Chris Weidman (-185) vs Jacare Souza (+150)
Once upon a time Jacare Souza was the scariest man walking the earth at 185 pounds. How quickly things have changed. He’s looked mortal with three losses over his last three fights. Considering this is a short notice opponent flip for both, Weidman is more equipped to handle his adversary in this one than the other way around. Keeping a steady pace against Souza on the feet, Weidman inches closer to a title shot.
Prediction: Chris Weidman by unanimous decision
David Branch (-370) vs Jared Cannonier (+280)
David Branch was set for a much more difficult matchup with Jacare Souza before Luke Rockhold pulled out of his co-main event bout with Chris Weidman a little over a week ago. Now he gets Jared Cannonier, who has remarkably bounced from light heavyweight to middleweight in recent fights. Cannonier is exciting and rugged, but is in tough going up against a New York native here who will build off his most recent win over Thiago Santos here.
Prediction: David Branch by unanimous decision
Karl Roberson (-275) vs Jack Marshman (+250)
The Dana White Tuesday Night Contenders Series fighter Karl Roberson is 1-1 in his early UFC career, and while there’s potential there, there’s also plenty of room for improvement. Jack Marshman has been in the cage far more than Roberson and has solid power, but he’s also a guy suspectible to giving up his neck on the ground. That’s the difference here.
Prediction: Karl Roberson by Round 2 SUB
Israel Adesanya (-335) vs Derek Brunson (+255)
Israel Adesanya showed he wasn’t a product of hype in his five-round demolition of Brad Tavares back in July in his last fight. He gets a better wrestler in Derek Brunson here, but a wrestler who at times can get sloppy on the feet with his hands down and his chin in the air coming forward. Brunson is a dangerous striker, but we are looking at a fighter in Adesanya ahead of the game and actually is improving as a grappler. The roll continues for “The Style Bender”.
Prediction: Israel Adesanya by Round 3 TKO
Prelims
Jason Knight vs Jordan Rinaldi
Jason Knight by Round 3 SUB
Sijara Eubanks vs Roxanne Modafferi
Sijara Eubanks by Round 2 SUB
Julio Arce vs Sheymon Moraes
Julio Arce by Round 2 TKO
Lyman Good vs Ben Saunders
Lyman Good by Round 3 TKO
Matt Frevola vs Lando Vannata
Matt Frevola by unanimous decision
Shane Burgos vs Kurt Holobaugh
Shane Burgos by Round 1 KO
Brian Kelleher vs Montel Jackson
Brian Kelleher by split-decision
Adam Wieczorek vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Marcos Rogerio de Lima by Round 1 KO
What are your thoughts on UFC 230? Leave your comments below!